That means we aren't going to cover every game, or every important play. As a Dolphin fan I can't help but laugh that they have by far the longest by far play off drought in that statenow. and of the front office. I hope that you like basketball because the Wizards are going to the playoffs after every year after every win or loss (they are 3-9). Even the generally more anti-analytics people I've seen haven't tried to defend that decision, and the most analytics-friendly defense is "that decision probably wasn't as bad as you thought, which isn't to say it was correct.". Pressure with 4, an ability to cover the hot routes and you need your safeties not to get burned quickly. But then yet another sack for Tampa Bay leads to yet another punt for Green Bay as the defenses have suddenly taken over. After Chris Godwin drops an easy slant, Brady goes back to him on third-and-9 and hooks up for 52 yards, with Godwin making a great leaping catch and boxing out Darnell Savage. In reply to TB's pass rush is clearly by MilkmanDanimal. game ('84).". Vince Verhei: OK, THAT interception is 100% on Brady. The NFL playoffs kick off with the 49ers hosting the Seahawks, followed by Justin Herbert versus Trevor Lawrence, and presumably some other players on both sides. Last week's fumble-touchback is the big one there. Bryan's email just stole what I was going to say: outside of a Tyreek Hill third-down drop, the Chiefs have scored a touchdown every possession, and without the benefit of good field position. Johnson was just really good at not throwing INTs or taking sacks, and that defense combined with an offense that didn't dig itself holes was good enough. This is a good point. 24-15 with a quarter and a half to play doesn't feel like a big win for the Bills after getting that close. The ball at the end of the first half was a terrible pass that Redmond should have caught if he was a legit professional. They would be the best 3 overall. "Except for" is basically having it both ways. Will the Kansas City Chiefs or Philadelphia Eagles become 2022's champions? Chicago, IL. Audibles at the Line! If you are saying Brady is just a Game Manager and his sole benefit to Tampais not throwing picks .. However, what Hall of Fame does this man belong in? Yes. Next third-and-10, though, pressure finally gets to Brady and he basically throws the ball away to set up a punt. One of Bill Walsh's keys to a winning team was a fourth-quarter pass rush. He has played 19 seasons, this is Super Bowl number 10. If the guy was an unfailing choker, why the hell is there a need to insert this little escape clause? In reply to I figure Pettine will be by dank067. Hey Bobman-in slothook's post above he wonders if a QB has to be 1 or the other-choker or clutch artist. This week's big story: so what is pass interference, anyway? I mean, "McNabb struggled to learn the playbook" rumors aside, he was always more of an improvisational QB anyway - rapidly operating in structure wasn't exactly his strong suit. Some teams hammer the opponent's weakness over and over again. Scott Spratt: I seriously hate how many deep shots the Bucs take on third-and-short. I guess that also raises a larger question about challenges: how much is each challenge worth? Travis Kelce has nine passes. In reply to I get why opposition fans by BJR. I don't know WHAT King was doing there, but it wasn't pass coverage. The emergency quarterback has to be a player on the 53-man roster, not a practice squad player elevated . There are approximately 150plays in an average NFLgame. Vince Verhei: Stathead lists 40 field goals this century by teams that were down by seven or eight points in the fourth quarter and came back to win. That's a killer -- Bills get the ball on the 3-yard line and throw to Dawson Knox in the flat for a score and a 10-0 lead. One more game in Super Wild Card Weekend, as Tom Brady and his Buccaneers take on Dak Prescott and the Cowboys! That actually gives you an idea for the enormity of the task. That's more than a possession a game. Football Outsiders Audibles at the Line: the FO crew breaks down the divisional round games including lots of thoughts on the crazy all-time classic between Green Bay and Arizona. How clutch was Tom Brady when NE was winning every game in early 2007 by 3 TD's or more? Tampa was 7 - 9 last year. Not claiming that Tampa cheats better. In reply to I oftenfind its the by Aaron Brooks G. Consider this: Bradyis down by 5 with 1:30 to go in the game. Brady has warped all expectations and you need to remember that Mahomes did not go to a bad team with a clueless head coach. It was a very interesting study that shed light on the performance levels of a lot of QB's pertaining to the playoffs. And yes, I'd argue that King's hold was longer than Murphy-Bunting's. game was the way HE played. I feel like it should be okay to say that what makes Brady exceptional isn't just his talent but his circumstances as well. If that hadn't happened, I bet the Bucs would just have tried to gain 5 or 10 yards for a field goal there. Many have talked at length about "taking the field" is clearly the best choice. Despite the match up, I'm not sure I actually care who wins the Super Bowl and yet it's hard to deny, It's a good match up. (EdjSports model says yes, and they had the right play call except St. Brown dropped the pass.). I mean, dear lord, the guy was 3rd in DYAR this year! A FG at 99% is (.99 x 3) -.3=2.67 expected points. Leonard Fournette has just taken over Ronald Jones' job as the lead rusher in Tampa Bay. : NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/cHuzDq5flQ pic.twitter.com/03WGHIvFVd. And, hey, there's Tracis Kelce open again, bringing the ball into the red zone after another 15-plus-yard gain. The Divisional round kicks off with the #1 seeds attempting to hold court against a pair of upstart underdogs, with the Chiefs taking on the Jaguars and the Eagles hosting the Giants. Plus Mahomes is a freaking 4th year starter, and Reid's practically got a phone book of plays for him at this point, and he seems to just be like "yeah, sure, what else can we do? Just score outrageously quickly so they can get another possession after another possible Bucs scoring drive. Aaron Schatz: Tony Romo has been pointing it out, but the Kansas City defensive pass coverage has been outstanding today. Rodgers' NFCCG struggles cast him in more of a McNabbian light absent that SB win. And too often it has become an ex-post narrative. In reply to To my knowledge by big10freak. It's easy to see the difference in offensive styles, for instance, just looking at the WR body types and how they're used. Evans can't bring it in, and it's tipped to Alexander for the interception. We're all sitting here gobsmacked -- they have to go out and play football. My gut is telling me no, though I can sympathize with being frustrated that the correct call was not made originally. Don't assume anything - always see the bullet coming! That put the ball at the 2-yard line, and the Packers got in three plays later. Down eight points. Equanimeous St. Brown drops the ball on the two-point conversion so we're now at 28-23 Bucs. The Bills just kicked a field goal from another fourth-and-3 in the red zone. But Buffalo needs to figure it out fast. Hill might be the most unusual receiver in NFL history - a savant at short shifty routes and electric at deep routes. Hes been blessed with great coaching/team-mate support at opportune moments throughout his career for sure. By its nature, it can be disjointed and dissimilar to the other articles on the site. His take was "oh, you mean infrequently.". I just don't think you can expect to beat Kansas City with field goals, especially right on the goal line. https://bit.ly/3aTgIMN The Ringer had an article last year about Reid's evolution incorporating like everything from college. Tom Gower: Congrats to 345 Park Avenue. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Hill, Kelce, Mahomes + Reid and that scheme is like a cheat code. One wonders which of the two was the trigger for both not to return to GB? Bryan Knowles: They could, Scott. I'd assume Kansas City's execution will improve from here, but these nine points count! well, there's a non-zero chance Tom Brady might be a better QB than Jimmy G. Any drop-off in quality of defense from SF to the Bucs is balanced by a much better offense. Air Distance: 54.1 yards Dave Bernreuther: Tyreek Hill proves my point with a 71-yard run wherein his legs in motion looked like a cartoon blur. But that's also the year Brady tore his ACL in week one, so I don't think it really counts towards the "division having a good QB to counter Brady" list. In a different sort of game, we'd be talking a lot about Rodgers converting that third-and-15 from his own end zone after a Turner-caused sack. However, it also allows Tampa Bay to throw on first down without worrying about an incompletion stopping the clock because there is no way that the play would finish that fast. They are mostly called when the quarterback has seen the defensive team have slipped into a position from which they can instigate a counter. Tom Brady finds Scotty Miller deep for a 39-yard TD with one second left in the first half! In reply to Choker AND clutch artist by Bob Smith. Yesterday, I was rooting for the Bucs more than rooting against the Packers, but there was a little bit of the latter. It would usually be a battle between young Vinny Testaverde and whichever terrible quarterback the Packers would march out. Scott Spratt: I loved the idea of the Jaydon Mickens slide to avoid the possible fumble. What the hell? The Dolphins also blew the chance to draft Matt Ryan. 2) Brady has quietly(or not so quietly) been kind of bad these last two games. And if Brady grounds it in panic, it's even off-setting! But then perhaps I am part of that number. Which is like listening to someone complain that the weight of their wallet causes them back pain. Just looked at their schedule, and, in 18 games, they scored under 20 once, and 32 or more ten times. Otto Graham did it in each of his 10 seasons. The Outsiders Audibles Audibles at the Line: Conference Championships January 24, 2021, 9:34 pm ET 170 Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans Photo: USA Today Sports Images compiled by Andrew Potter Each Sunday, the FO staff sends around emails about the games that each of us are watching. As a Bears fan, I know exactly how you feel. I absolutely loved watching Marino play back in the day-what football fan wouldn't have back then. Not seeing Adams on the offsides call. Part of me wonders if that's why Antonio Brown didn't really explode onto the scene in Tampa - I mean, he had a decent year for only playing half the year and heis32 now but he's also a way different receiver than Godwin/Evans and not really one that Arians uses heavily. But in 'this' game he was pretty terrible and all praise should go to the Tampa defense. I don't get this field goal attempt at all. Doesn't mean it's far off. The Bucs playing with two backup safeties could have been big. But for so many people, it is. No Brady, no magic. They weren't just bland, they were bad. Tom Gower: OK, another game coming up soon, so bullet points: Tom Gower: We talked about updating Guts and Stomps earlier in the season as something to do, but the Bucs are a heck of an endorsement for Stomps being what matters. Methinks both will be elsewhere come next season, In reply to End of the first half defensive play call by big10freak. This is exactly what makes it reminiscent of arguing politics with your drunk uncle at Thanksgiving. I doubt a true game manager type like Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr or Teddy Bridgewater would have the Bucs at this point. Aaron Schatz: Tampa Bay's protection has been absolutely outstanding. Bryan Knowles: That third-down conversion feels like it's going to be a significant turning point in this game, Vince. Just an in game coaching disaster. They crushed a bunch of bad teams, lost some mostly (but not all) close games against the better teams they played, and they have won three straight road games to make the Super Bowl. Bryan Knowles: Yeah, it was pass interference, but they have been letting everything go in the secondary. I was pretty surprised when I found myself rooting for them yesterday, but I guess the influx of annoying Packer fans here had an effect on me(sorry, ammek, DisplacedPackerFan, and all the regulars that I enjoy reading comments from). Green Bay runs a pick play that looks similar to mesh (though not identical) to free up Aaron Jones in space on a third-and-medium. That's what I meant by "differently talented" above, though - I'm not really convinced that they're *trying* to build a 'classically dominant' OL. In reply to Pennington was great in 2008 by Eddo. In both scenarios Tampa did a better job of leveraging the officiating approach. Brady played amazing at 43 and made the rest of the team including the head coach better. He had a great season. Said it before, but they remind me of the KD Warriors more than any football team I've ever seen, As for the Bucs, your preview was dead-on; both Brady and Rodgers played well but not very well, and the Bucs won by whipping the Pack offensive line in the trenches, was decided by line play on both sides (TB stoned GB's pass rush regularly), Kevin King and the GB special teams as per usual giving up lots of yards. I read that Bradys teams are now 3-1 when the opposing teams intercepts 3 or more passes in playoff contests. The biggest issue is they've usually had to go on the road. Dan was the only QB back then that was allowed to throw the ball aound an avg. It's a maladaptive and childish impulse, but I can't deny that it's there. If you zoom in on that chart you might be able to read the actual game by game Values. Cgamp. TB's scheme seems to utilize their talent. They couldn't really run the ball. Championship games ('85 and '92). Adding them all up leads to -157 and -170, In reply to Adding them all up leads to by GwillyGecko. He't not even a 38 year old Rivers. Even if they nail a new DC hire though, I think it's going to be a challenge to get a lot better on defense right away. He has more playoff wins over the NFC than Drew Brees. There's only 20 minutes left in your season, Buffalo; you're going to need to find the end zone! That does not excuse his coach who made poor decision after poor decision. In reply to Don't forget the luckiest thing of all by coltsandrew. Two plays, 72 yards. The integration of talent and scheme is something few teams do as well. You don't sign your qb to a 4 year, bajillion dollar contract and then draft his replacement. Patrick Mahomes looks like the foot isn't bothering him too much. The win probability graphs basically have a straight line. Reid, recognizing that his guy might have the jitters, dials up some really simple plays to get him back into the game: The TD pass on a screen where he has to simply catch it and turn for the endzone, and then the end around. One ended at the half. Tremendous performance by the 2 Bucs pass rushers. We watch the games that we, as fans, are interested in watching, so your favorite team's game might not be covered to your fullest desires or even at all. The divisional round ends with the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills in a rematch of the Damar Hamlin game, plus the ninth postseason meeting between the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers. I will guessthat if you randomly added 10 DVOA percentage points to every Brady team and subtracted 5 DVOA points from every Brady playoff opponent, he should still not make 10 Super Bowls. The difference to me is that Kelce and Hill are so good at what they do that the OL doesn't *need* to actually be "traditional" good. Good time for a big play, that. For Green Bay, the split between Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams has been more even, but Williams has been the more consistent performer -- Jones has more yards, but outside of the 60-yarder last week hasn't done much. But that "outside of Billy Turner" caveat is an important one. Second-and-1 is terrible; it allows the Buccaneers to burn an extra timeout with a new set of downs. In reply to I oftenfind its the by Dave Bernreuther. (If you are a Seahawks or Patriots fan, you are probably in luck; if you are a Lions fan, not so much.) The NFL rings in the new year with 24 teams still alive in the playoff race, and zero games featuring two teams with winning records this Sunday. In reply to Reid's real genius by IlluminatusUIUC. It's first-and-10 either way. The original Monday NFL staff discussion: ACCEPT NO SUBSTITUTES. I guess I was just saying that a score of 24-20, with either team winning, wouldn't surprise me at all. 3 ints and 2 other int worthy plays should get you beat by a million points. This third-and-long performance by the Bucs is miraculous and unsustainable, but it has given them a 14-7 lead. They didn't even have a great line. ), their SRS was 12.75. Two teams, one trophy. It's easy to point at Rodgers' misses because they are all clear on replays. In reply to We are back to the take the field vs one team argument by jheidelberg. In retrospect, with 8 seconds left -- the refs aren't calling anything. I can still remember being frustrated by Andy Reid during the Steelers loss. The first Fg was a bad decision. "Mecole Hardman makes an egregious mistake, fumbling inside his own 5 and setting the Bills up for a touchdown. One of those was the single kneeldown at the end of the first half. "It's a good thing Rodgers won his SB so early into his career or we would be hearing a never ending parade of narratives involving Rodgers and his inability to win when it matters most.". Finally the Packers move the ball down the field, then totally botch the goal to go situation. But the Packers failed in goal-to-go, Rodgers got picked in the two-minute drill (we're playing this game under playoff rules, with almost no post-snap flags and -- given Turner's movement -- maybe not any pre-snap flags either), and the Bucs cashed in their extra possession in the most dramatic way. It's not Brady. On Kansas City's first drive of the second half, there was another one of those "Is this a good challenge?" Sadly for Tampa Bay, Ronald Jones is fifth at 15.2%. Raw score = (Game AY/A-AllPlayerSeason AY/A)*attempts+RY(>4.0 YPC). Free Download: "The Ultimate Guide to Football Defense" Booklet (254 pages) Who Calls an Audible? I would have to disagree. Yep, that's fair. I don't think they will to that extent. Chris Godwin is going to get paid this off season pic.twitter.com/5yrXGXSRKx, National Football Post (@FootballPost) January 24, 2021. It's hard to see how all those players fit under the cap in the future. Sorry about that but after some thought-you would have to zoom OUT to see more of Dan's chart. Whoever was supposed to cover Brate (Adrian Amos, it looks like) jumped the fake. Scott Spratt: I guess the Packers are doing the football equivalent of the basketball two-and-one here. NoAFCEast team ever found an answer at quarterback for two straight decades. Not single-high safety. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. What on earth is the idea? In the middle of the play he had the presence of mind not to want to sprint for 30 yards if it was just going to be called back. Packers have a very strange front office structure. I get why opposition fans are salty about Brady right now. The Ravens led 20-0 when Tommy Maddox was knocked out of the game by a vicious hit (legal in 2004). But who knows how posts via chat forums get interpreted? I will give an example, I was at Ben Roethlisberger's first NFL game. Btw, both statements can be true at the same time Brady. But he has some serious flaws in his game. The best quarterback of the 2010s versus the leader in the clubhouse for best quarterback of the 2020s. Let's find out our Super Bowl matchup, shall we? HUGE play. In his defense, nothing else Buffalo is doing is working either -- all their good plays have been Allen runs or scramble-drill passes. It undoubtedly contributed to the increasingly spluttering offence as defenders realised what they were being allowed to get away with. you don't see a lot of touchdown drives with eight completions for only 51 yards. And, sorry Cleveland fans -- the refs are calling helmet-to-helmet today, with the Bucs getting flagged for hitting Davante Adams around the goal line in one of those "both players dropped their helmet" plays. Cale Clinton: The difference in performance between early downs and third downs was staggering on that first drive. Bryan Knowles: I think we were all waiting to see what the Packers would do with it, but Green Bay has now clawed their way back into the game. I haven't felt like King was worth re-signing at all unless he comes in close to the minimum and I hope this game puts that into perspective for management. Weighted is the raw score * playoff week. Only 118 yards, so it won't be the most valuable day or anything (I imagine that still belongs to Vernon Davis against the Saints after the 2011 season), but that's a hell of a number. Hey, whatever works! Jamaal Williams thoroughly planned to let it bounce through the end zone, but he was so surprised by the action, he caught it off the bounce and advanced it barely past the 10-yard line. What a clutch artist !! Vince Verhei: And that's after air-mailing a wide-open receiver on a crossing route that would have moved the sticks on second down. Its not controversial to suggest reaching 10 Super Bowls in 21 seasons might have involved above averageluck. Champ. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. or is he . It's also worth noting that the idea that "yeah, any QB would have success with Evans/Godwin/AB/Gronk" is also unfair. It feels like the Bucs have more older Vets hanging on for a ring. Having 1st and 10 at your own6 is worth -1 points. Brady looked like Drew Lock or something there the way he panicked under pressure. That means he needs 8 in the next 15 years. In reply to I don't know, isn't this by Eddo. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. I think the other thing with Mahomes is that he flat out has the *perfect* coach for him, and I think Mahomes is the perfect QB for Reid, too. TheBills blew the chance to draft Cam Newton. Bryan Knowles: One thing that did go wrong for the Chiefs today -- they have ruled out Eric Fisher very quickly with an Achilles injury. Aaron Schatz: Buffalo is back to its strategy from the first game, lots of zones with two safeties back to prevent the big play by Kansas City. games. Some are obviously much more influential (spot challenges on fourth down, receivers getting both feet down in bounds on third down, etc.) A quarterback often calls an audible when he doesn't like how the offensive play that was called matches up with the defensive formation. What a choker. We'll also keep an eye on the Chiefs attempting to clinch the #1 seedeven with this year's weird circumstances. That is true, but they certainly got better a few years later and Jerry Rice was always a big factor. This isn't a new phenomenon either, before this season he would roll out guys like Mike Tolbert and Frank Gore in high-leverage situations as well. Yup, the dude almost blew an amazing performance by the defense by throwing 3 second half picks. The players at the top of the Chiefs offense are just so insanely, ludicrously good that it changes everything. They now have that QB. The above made-up example was the Conf. In reply to I'm not just going to take by Aaron Brooks G. Bryan Knowles: OK, between the touchdown and the 50-yard end around, I think Hardman has made up for his muffed punt at this point. In reply to https://www.pro-football by GwillyGecko. Scott Spratt: What an awesome kickoff there by Ryan Succop! Leonard Fournette being as involved in Tampa Bay's passing attack as he was on that drive really made for some head-scratching moments. And if that is KC, the baton has been passed. Since a TD is worth 6.94 points, going for it gives you (.4 x 6.94) -.3 +(.6 x 1)= 3.08 expected points. Bryan Knowles: I'm not arguing it's not interference, Scott. Scott Spratt: Did the Bucs call a superfluous timeout with the clock stopped on fourth-and-4 with 13 seconds left? We have no intention of adding new authors solely to cover every game on a given Sunday, nor will we watch a different game from the ones that we're personally interested in watching just to ensure that Audibles covers every game. Peyton Manning is 2nd in the era with 4 appearances and two championships. Bryan Knowles: And, on the ensuing play, the Packers decide covering Cameron Brate is overrated, and it's an easy pitch-and-catch for the touchdown -- Adrian Amos just sort of ushed Brate past him into the end zone. Green Bay responds to the quick Tampa Bay touchdown with an efficient drive down the field, with Robert Tonyan capping off the drive with the touchdown reception after finding a hole in the zone coverage. Stroud Falls to Colts in GTM's Final Mock Draft, Aaron Rodgers and the Jets: Low Floor, Low Ceiling, QBASE 2023: Why Bryce Young Tops C.J. This is partly the argument I've been making against Reid's "clock management" issues, which really get exemplified by the Super Bowl loss - I think there's a strong argument to be made that if Reid *had* rushed McNabb in those situations, they just would've failed. WTH. In reply to Packers have a very strange by Wimichaeljsmith. The risk with a guy like Mahomes, is even if you get all three things, he's liable to either take off and run for 20 yards, or run around behind the LOS for 20 yards and eventually one of his burners will shake free. It's interesting that GB has been very good for a long time, and of your list, only SEA was able to maintain that peak for any amount of time. Without anyone noticing it, Andy Reid turned into Al Davis. Success rate would tell you the Packers have been by far the better team today -- at the end of the third quarter, they're up to 21 first downs to only 12 for Tampa Bay, and eight of those 12 have come on third or fourth down. I hope they have a wake-up call and realize they will not win another SB during AR career without an overhaul of their front office and talent evaluators. This is a team that could barely beat the Raiders (twice), Denver and the Chargers. They pick up a Green Bay stunt perfectly and Brady has plenty of time in the pocket, but his pass to an open Evans is touch too high. In reply to As a Bears fan (like Eddo), by TomC. It's not a crazy argument. It's fair to lump it in with luck when the context of the conversation is how much individual praise a player is receiving for things that are, whether through luckor coaching, entirely outside of his control. Bryan Knowles: The number-one offense in the red zone -- 55.2% DVOA! Scott Spratt: I don't know, Bryan. I understand letting them play, but calling a game deciding penalty when there was an obvious penalty by the other team is pretty poor form. to Brady's 12 in the regular season this year. receivers. Even the 3-out had a wide open perfect throw to Tyreek who just dropped it. Audibles at the Line goes around the NFL and covers Sunday's games. 1) Like you said. Brady isnt blessed from on high; hes a ferocious worker, great player, who has benefitted from great surroundings - particularly at the beginning and end of his career when his abilities as a player were not at their peak. In reply to That's your problem not mine by Bob Smith, https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index1dc8.html?p=548. Doesn't matter, of course, because the Buccaneers throw an incomplete pass on third down, and the Packers are going to ge wait, what? Travis Kelce has nine with four minutes left in the first half. The latest of those was kicked with 2:50 left in the game. He never needed to do anything in the "clutch" as the closest the games usually got were at 0-0 at the opening kickoff. Tyler Bass misses the PAT. 4th down hasthe highest leverage plays, these are the plays and the decisions that decide close games. Similarly, he and Daboll seemingly struggle to get Josh Allen back under control once games start to get away from him. Curious as to how well Fisher's backup is going to be able to hold up in the face of the rush. He is like Desean Jackson and Wes Welker combined. The 49ers were getting pressure with 4 against slow developing offensive plays. Buffalo was above average against tight ends in the regular season, but, well, Kelce's slightly above above average. In reply to "except for" both ways by Bobman. Vince Verhei: Packers are pinned deep late in the first quarter when Jason Pierre-Paul beats Not David Bakhtiari for a sack to set up third-and-long. It has been a noticeable and significant downgrade from David Bakhtiari in pass protection, to the Packers' detriment. Can anything follow the Jaguars' insane comeback from Saturday night? Cornerback depth is not a Green Bay strength. I would love to see a FO analysis based upon the DVOA of each year at the start of the playoffs, the odds of Brady making 10 Super Bowls. The 5 yards and the first down are not nearly as important as the timeout. It wouldn't make a ton of sense in Reid's offense - he's always targeted more athletic types that can block out in space. And then something very weird happens: Rodgers throws three straight goal-to-go incompletions. Who will win? As Aaron said, it wasn't big plays that brought Green Bay out, which surprises me -- now both Buccaneers safeties are out, with Jordan Whitehead headed for the locker room, so I was assuming the Packers would test the Bucs deep. You really have to watch Mahomes play every week to appreciate his greatness. The list of most-fortunate QBs in pro football history probably includes Brady, Graham, and Montana, and probably Starr. I think the point about the above comment is that in addition to Brady being an all time Qb and hard to beat, even when he plays poorly he somehow wins anyways. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Audibles at the Line: Conference Championships, Support Football Outsiders' independent media. While these emails are generally written with Audibles in mind, they do not represent a standard review of all the games each week. Chiefs Bills - it didnt matter, but Sean McDermott played to lose. That first-down "drop" was mainly a function of Rodgers throwing what would've been a perfect ball if Adams had spun the other direction, and the next two plays were better defended. At least in my case, that's what bothers me. Brady, Evans, Godwin, Brown, and Gronk is crazy, and throw in Cameron Brate as a solid pass-catcher and Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson as younger players who have shown a lot and that's a heck of an offense, but Tyreek Hill is basically a Madden cheat code in a red jersey, and Kelce's just such a solid target. Even Mahomes may decline some, part of Brady's greatness is his durability and his lack of substantial decline. Perhaps not trying to run it in late. The TB/KC Super Bowl will be *really* interesting schematically, as the two teams really don't look anything alike in terms of what they do on offense. First, Jaydon Mickens slides down while returning the kick before the two-minute warning, resulting in the clock stopping at 2:02 and effectively giving Green Bay an additional clock stoppage. It landed right on/near the front line of the end zone with golf wedge-like backspin. Oh, let's add an underhanded pass play! Then add in Mahomes's ability to get the ball to them even when the play's falling apart (which, again, I think Reid's been *begging* for all these years) and it's just perfect. Their defense was Swiss cheese in the 2nd half. This is why I will stick with the 300 years argument. Tyreek Hill drops what would have been a big gain into Buffalo territory on third down. The future is hard. Agreed, this is a great example of great coaching. Kind of similar to this year, in that regard. Trailing by multiple scores while being shut out to start 4 of their last 5 playoff games. Brady can be the goat and the luckiest qb of all time. he is in his own category for taking advantage of free plays. Very smart of Reid to get him some easy plays and demonstrate the coaching staffs continued faith in the players. They fumble and Brady gets the ball back. Result: 10 yards and two dropped passes. Vince Verhei: My goodness, what a collapse for Green Bay at the end of the half. Since Manning retired, Brady has been to an absurd 4 SBs in 5 seasons. I don't love that at all. That said, he did make the absolute most of opportunities, but it is also fair to say that he's had several significant advantages that no other QB in history has had. Some teams do what they do. Thanks for that correction. I am in agreement that the Packers front office should shoulder most of the blame for their inability to make it back to the SB over the past 9 seasons. Completion Probability: 25.2%, *Scotty Miller has been targeted on Tom Brady's 4 of 6 deepest & 5 of 6 most difficult passes this season#TBvsGB | #GoBucs pic.twitter.com/xqwvWgIgg8, Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 24, 2021. I think one narrative deserving more discussion is Andy Reid's significant grasp of the psychology of a team and a game. Carl Yedor: That drive was more in line with what I was expecting. what a game for Kevin King pic.twitter.com/ioj4S9YfQ4, Rodger Sherman (@rodger) January 24, 2021. There is an interesting observation in the commentary What's changed are the sets of plays that they *use* to manipulate the defense. I guess if you're the Packers and Ricky Wagner, that means you should try holding a little bit more -- the refs clearly don't want to call anything today! In reply to It's not all luck but by Dave Bernreuther. A feat rarely accomplished by the Wizards. Next play, Sean Murphy-Bunting is holding Allen Lazard, no call, and Murphy-Bunting gets the rare pick of Aaron Rodgers. Those one-off teams usually do ride a hot year to a title, usually paired with a great defense and sometimes also with a good line. Maddox had an awful game and here comes Big Ben with two garbage time TD's in the 4th quarter. This was a close game that they could have won. Scott Spratt: Just to add a bit of color to Aaron's and others' points about the Packers' lack of cornerback depth: Jaire Alexander allowed 4.4 yards per target, Chandon Sullivan allowed 6.3 yards per target, and Kevin King allowed 8.4 yards per target this regular season. I believe GB had much more offensive talent(WR/TE; Offensive line) and should have won this game. But those three interceptions all count. game. How did this happen? Those two are examples of when a superstar qb lands in the idealest of circumstances. They did, today, and the Bills will lose by two touchdowns even with the muffed punt, onside kick recovery, and getting the last legitimate possession of the first half. There are soft zones, and then there's what the Bills are allowing Kelce today. The field goal attempt was preposterous- I was staring at the screen open-mouthed - but Rodgers takes his share of the blame, especially for failing to scramble onthird down. In a critical shootout game against the league's most athletic team, he insists on giving snap after snap to overmatched veterans like Josh Norman, TJ Yeldon, and Lee Smith because he can't bring himself to trust Knox, Singletary, Antonio Williams, Dane Jackson, etc. It was a classic NE winthe toss and scorea TD, KC gets no chance in OT. Hey Gwilly-I can't seem to pull that up on my rather old computer. Gonna be tough for Green Bay to pick themselves up after that. I think his "evolution" is more explained by the roster than it is about him. Bills: five possessions on long fields, six points. There was a very blatant hold by the Bucs RT on the play with the pass interference call that sealed the game. Just for the record, there have been 12 playoff games since 1991 where a team converted at least 11 third downs. Aaron Schatz: Game is getting away from the Bills early. . Bowles kept blitzing Rodgers and Rodgers normally eviscerates the blitz. When and Where to Audible Pennington was great in 2008, as well. Allen is pressing and just had two inaccurate passes, one a dropped interception, to lead to a three-and-out. A mind boggling number that is unlikely to be repeated in my lifetime. -- can't get in from the 6-yard line. . 9, because Brady overthrows Mike Evans, Jaire Alexander comes down with it, and the Packers have the ball down one score. Could you see them ? Raw by Aaron Brooks G. If the QB can only throw 20-30 yards, having 4 guys running routes isn't going to help. Dan had 10 Negative value PO games and 2 others in the single digits, but that is the extent of my notes. I'm so old I remember when they used to call it the battle of the bays, the bay of pigs because Green bay and Tampa Bay were seemingly bad and bland year afteryear. \Bradshaw, Staubach, and Aikman'sinnate performance levels are more questionable, but they too fell into near-perfect circumstances. They had five other offensive possessions, all starting backed up, and once Sean McDermott made the decision to accept a two-score halftime deficit, they scored six points on those five possessions. To me you're underselling the "Andy Reid has gotten better with clock management" bit. I think that rationale speaks poorly of Rodgers(He needed this to motivate him?) 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